After months of speculation that things were getting tougher, the latest USCIS numbers confirm it. In Fiscal Year 2025 Quarter 3 (April, May, and June 2025), EB-2 NIW approvals dipped to 54% while EB-1A came in at 67%. That reversal—where EB-2 NIW trends below EB-1A—has shown up intermittently since late FY2023 and is now unmistakable. The takeaway is not panic, but preparation: stronger evidence, tighter narratives, and RFE-ready files.
How we treat the official USCIS data
The approval and denial rates we discuss here reflect I-140 adjudications only. My method is simple: download USCIS’s official spreadsheet and compute approvals divided by approvals plus denials, multiplied by 100.
Approval rates declining: especially true for EB-2 NIW
Quarter-to-quarter variance is normal, but the multi-quarter direction for EB-2 NIW has clearly been down.
We’ve been seeing more RFEs—first rising toward the end of the prior administration and now clearly common in the first months of the current one. The new data backs that lived experience: lower approval rates tend to correlate with stricter evidentiary expectations. Build with that in mind: make your claim, connect it to U.S. impact, and corroborate with independent, verifiable proof.
Below are the approval rates for both EB-2 NIW and EB-1A green card categories.
The frontlog (or I-140 adjudication backlog continues
Volume and backlogs add important context. EB-1 pending inventory now exceeds 30,000 cases; EB-2 has crossed 80,000. But what is the significance of this?
To provide some context for these numbers: employment-based visas are capped at 140,000 per year, with EB-1 and EB-2 each allotted roughly 28%—about 40,000 green cards apiece.
USCIS still needs to move through 80,000 EB-2 cases. Assuming one derivative per I-140 case and an approval rate of 70% (this is very conservative because the approval rate for the overall EB-2 category is currently at around 80%) that is still over 100,000 visa numbers that will be used up in the EB-2 category just to clear up this pile of cases. That more than 2 years worth of EB-2 annual quotas!
Top countries by number of I-140 approvals
Top countries in EB-1A
India and China held the top two spots and together still made up roughly half of EB-1 I-140 approvals. The top five (India, China, Nigeria, Brazil, and Russia) were unchanged and collectively accounted for about 65% of approvals. Biggest movers inside the top 10: Iran jumped from #8 to #6 (89 approvals, +26); Canada slipped from #7 to #9 (−16); South Korea edged down from #6 to #7 despite +11 approvals (others fell less); and the UK climbed from #10 to #8 with the same approval count.
Top countries in EB-2 NIW
Compared to the previous quarter, the top of the table didn’t reshuffle: China and India remain #1 and #2, but both fell in absolute approvals, mirroring the overall NIW downturn. In fact, China received 539 less approvals than in the previous quarter, and India 229 less. Beyond the leaders, Iran and Nigeria kept positions but also with less cases approved compared to the previous quarter. Bangladesh went up from #6 to #5 and South Korea did the reverse trip to the sixth position with 72 less cases approved compared to Q2.
What do these numbers mean for you?
Not a lot. They are useful to grasp the general trend of adjudication standards. In that sense, we are corroborating the general perception of NIW adjudications becoming increasingly stringent. However, your probability of success really depends on your own case and merits. Think of your proposed endeavor for example, in EB-2 NIW. It play a critical role in the overall case because the national importance and broader impacts of it will play a big role in the officer´s determination. But of course your own credentials (crucial in EB-1A! and important for Prong 2 in EB-2 NIW) will be decisive.
The way you present the facts and the arguments also plays a role. That’s why we developed our courses for DIY petitioners: to teach you how to write each chapter touching the key points in the most efficient manner.
There are also factors we can’t control, such as the current climate of adjudications or the specific officer who will review our petition. So we can just do our best to prepare the best case possible: control what you can!
